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2022: A surprisingly good year for DC investors?
Last year was a rocky ride for most asset classes, but our research indicates there could be light on the horizon for defined contribution (DC) pension scheme members.
With the challenging backdrop of higher interest rates, spikes in commodity prices and the resulting cost-of living crisis, investors saw significant falls in both bond and equity values in 2022. Overall, we believe a typical DC member’s holdings may have suffered losses of around 15% for the year. To add insult to injury, the cost of goods shot up by 13%, eroding the inflation-adjusted value of DC pots.
However, we don’t believe that it was all bad news for long-term investors. Our optimism is grounded in the fact that our strategic expected returns in excess of inflation have risen notably, thanks to a rise in long-term real interest rates of around 3%.
Yields that heal
To provide a little more background to our research, a common model for expected returns is based on a ‘gilts-plus’ philosophy.
The idea assumes that investors demand a risk premium above what they could secure from government bond markets. If real yields on gilts go up or down then we expect (all else equal) the inflation-adjusted returns on other assets, such as equities, to change by the same amount.
So although DC investors are currently likely to have less money in their pension pot following the market falls, the rise in real yields has boosted how fast we expect the pot to grow relative to inflation over the period until retirement.
Multiple matters
To find out the overall impact for different cohorts of DC investors, we set up a simple projection model and compared how some representative individuals’ projected pensions (in inflation-adjusted terms) fared over 2022. Our results are summarised in the table below and are based on a number of key assumptions.*
The values represent what you need to multiply the member’s projected retirement outcome at the end of 2021 by to get what the projected outcomes were at the end of 2022.
Anything above 1 is ‘good news’. For example, a member on track for a real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) income of £10,000 a year in retirement that has an ‘uplift multiple’ of two could now expect twice as much i.e. £20,000 a year.
The impact of 2022 on projected outcomes
| Age |
Uplift multiple for projected tax-free cash @ retirement |
Uplift multiple for projected real income in retirement |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| 35 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 45 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| 55 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 65 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
One of the nice things about these ratios is that broadly they do not depend on the choice of investment strategy, so long as the strategy isn’t changed. For example, if you expect more annuity income because yields have risen, you also expect to receive more income ‘sustainably’ out of income drawdown in decumulation under the ‘gilts-plus’ assumption.
As you can see, in terms of projected outcomes, the overall picture for DC investors has improved markedly over 2022. Younger members could benefit the most as, given their longer time horizons, their projections are more sensitive to the level of future returns.
Members close to retirement are likely to have seen their pot shrink, resulting in lower tax-free cash amounts should they access it soon, but our calculations show that even they could now receive a higher income in retirement.
Grounds for optimism
2022 was a challenging year for many, particularly given the painful squeeze on living standards. There is a risk, not captured in the above table, of individuals reducing their pension contributions, which would worsen retirement outcomes.
Assuming individuals can find a way to leave their contributions unchanged, however, it is nice to see that there is a silver lining of sorts to 2022’s tough market environment.
Indeed, based on reasonable projections of future pension scheme values, we believe many DC investors now have reason to be optimistic, with the potential for a substantial increase in the income they receive when they retire.
*Key assumptions
A 5% salary increase in 2022
Realised nominal return of -15% on assets in 2022
Realised annual inflation of 13% in 2022
From 2023 onwards, salaries increase in line with inflation
Contributions are assumed to be fixed proportion of salary, independent of age
Retirement age of 67
Interest rates and inflation based on Bank of England yield curves
Risk premia did not change over 2022
Starting pots are based on the above assumptions as at 31/12/2021, with contributions beginning aged 23
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