LGIM Blog - Tim Drayson, Head of Economics

Disclaimer: Views in this blog do not promote, and are not directly connected to any L&G product or service. Views are from a range of L&G investment professionals, may be specific to an author’s particular investment region or desk, and do not necessarily reflect the views of L&G. For investment professionals only.

Tim keeps a close watch on global economic developments, with a particular focus on the US. He believes nothing good ever happens after midnight, which is why he is rarely spotted out late. Tim joined in 2008 from the number-one ranked economics team at ABN AMRO, with prior experience from HM Treasury, and graduated with a MSc from the University of Nottingham. When not crunching economic data, he can be found studying the weather forecast, analysing his cycling statistics or looking anxious on three-foot putts.

Other articles by Tim Drayson

Great unravel

The great unravelling?

The initial bout of optimism around President Trump’s agenda for the US economy appears to be fading as uncertainty rises. Is this just a temporary soft patch or the beginning of a more serious growth deterioration?

Trump tariff

President Trump’s first couple of weeks: economic implications

The White House’s policy agenda has been in overdrive since inauguration. Consensus expects the agenda to support US growth. We see significant downside risks to this view.

challenging 1

Challenging a complacent consensus

We think market participants may be mistakenly extrapolating the reflationary effects of the first Trump administration’s policies – and underestimating the impact of future tariffs.

Budget image

Better days ahead?

This week’s budget provides the economic policy clarity for the rest of this Parliament. We deliver our initial verdict.

Aeroplane landing

Cleared to land?

A soft landing is coming into view, but with potential pockets of turbulence ahead, we are neutral on risk assets.

optical illusion

Optical illusion

We believe the prospects for a US soft landing have improved further due to recent large upward revisions to household savings and profits in the national accounts. There now appears to be less pressure for consumers to slow spending or for companies to cut costs.

Tariffs Trump

Gauging the impact of tariffs under Trump

One of the biggest policy differences between the presidential candidates is trade; at stake is the speed of deglobalisation.

stick landing

Sticking the landing

Anxiety around a US recession briefly flared up at the start of August, but our recession indicators suggest that while risks remain, the chances of a ‘soft landing’ have improved further.

Pick-up sticks

What if everything goes right?

While equities have headroom in a benign environment, we now see credit as unfavourably asymmetrical given limited risk compensation and capped upside.

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